The random method of trading has a 50% chance of the stop or target been reached given that the stop and target are the same distance apart. Although this statement is true this wouldn't work in practice because of the type of entry (at market) and the nature of the bid/ask price. We also need to take commissions into account - this is dealt with in the payouts. But let's examine this more closely and see why I consider it to be gambling and yet still a viable business. The word gambling is often associated with the taking of a disproportionately higher risk than the reward associated with that risk. "I wouldn't short the YM here, that's just a gamble." This sentence can be roughly translated into "I wouldn't short the YM here, there is no high probability setup here." When you walk into a casino and sit down at the roulette table die besten online casinos codes, who is gambling? Is it you or the casino? In my opinion you both are. It's just that the odds of winning are different for the two of you. If you bet $1 on red on each spin of the wheel then you have a 47.4% chance of winning and the house has a 52.6% chance of winning. You should expect to win $474 and lose $526 for every thousand spins of the wheel or a net loss of $52. For you this is a gamble. for the house it isn't. This is because you are taking a disproportionately higher risk than the reward associated with that risk. The house is not. On the other hand, our stop is executed when 10421 is touched and this will happen when the bid/ask pair moves down to 10421/10422. Once 10421 is touched we execute a sell and close the trade for a 20 point loss. This means that the bid/ask pair needs to move 19 points down in order for us to close the trade at a loss. Let's say that the YM is trading at 10440/10441 bid/ask. Our random method calls a buy so we go long at 10441. Our target is 10461 and our stop is 10421. The probability of the YM moving 19 points in one direction is clearly higher than the chance of it moving in the other direction by 21 points given all other factors being equal. In order to calculate the probability of one event happening over the other the we need to run a Monte Carlo simulation across a data set of the YM and use those results. I haven't done that (yet) so I'm going to make another assumption here and that is that the probability of 19 points being reached versus 21 points in the opposite direction is 52.5% I would like to take this opportunity here to point out that in theory you can still win at this game by using the martingale system of money management. Each time you lose, you double the bet on the next spin until you win. This system can be modified by doubling the bet of the last loss and adding one base unit. This means that you will make one unit ($1 if that's your base) for each spin of the wheel. This is only possible in theory because of two limiting factors: 1. You need unlimited capital to carry your through your draw downs and 2. The casino has a limit on how much you can bet on any one spin. I'd like to focus on two words that came under the definition of gambling at the beginning of this article. They are "uncertain outcome." I don't think that anyone reading this article will deny that there is an uncertain outcome in both a play at a table in the casino and any one trade. Even if red came up 20 times in a row on the roulette wheel we know that the chance for red to come up on the next spin is 47.4%. The roulette wheel has no memory. The problem we have with entering a random trade is that it has to trade through the target price in order to fill the target but only has to touch the stop price to trigger a stop. Let's take a look at an example to clarify this. The example assumes that the bid/ask spread is always 1 point. The target is reached (or rather the target is guaranteed) when the bid/ask pair is 10461/10462. We need the bid to be 10461 or higher to be able to sell and close out our long at the target. This means that the bid/ask pair needs to move 21 points up in order for us to reach the target. The roulette table has a 0 and a 00 and the numbers 1 to 36. That gives us 38 different numbers that can result in the spin of the wheel. The odds of any one of these numbers coming up is 1 in 38 which is 2.63%. Selecting a chip Press on Orphelins to place this bet. Number history is shown on the display next to the wheel. The repeat button becomes available after the first game. Press this button to re‐place the bets from the previous game. Flash game: This rule applies when the outcome is zero. Any bets placed on any ‘Even Chance’ bets (red/black android yahoo messenger, 1‐18/19‐36, odd/even) will return half the stake. The double bet button becomes available once chips have been placed on the layout. Press this button to double the value of all the chips on the layout no deposit bonus bingo, up to the permitted maximums. Press on any bet position on the betting layout to place the selected chip. Click again to add another chip to the current bet. Clicking history opens a panel showing:
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